ESPN isn’t hedging: the American League West race and the battle for the AL’s third wild-card spot are “the worst in MLB history. Or maybe the weirdest, if you want a nicer description.” This week began with only four AL teams holding winning records. The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers were tied atop the AL West at 65-66 — yes, below .500 — with Cleveland matching that record, meaning two losing teams would have made the playoffs if the season ended Monday, per ESPN. The Seattle Mariners lost August games by scores of 22-0, 19-2, 11-0, and 8-0… and didn’t lose any ground. Welcome to September baseball, 2026 edition: somebody has to win this thing.
Key Takeaways
- The AL West leaders began the week below .500 — a full-season losing team could reach the playoffs for the first time ever.
- Of the eight contenders, only Detroit has a positive run differential.
- Cleveland holds the third wild card with 61.7% playoff odds and the AL's second-easiest remaining schedule.
- The CBA expires December 1, so September also doubles as a free-agent audition ahead of a possible lockout.
How historically bad is this?
ESPN provides the context. Excluding the asterisk seasons of 1981 and 2020, no team with a losing record has ever reached the playoffs. The worst full-season playoff teams ever: the 2005 Padres (82-80), the 1973 Mets (82-79), the 2025 Reds (83-79), and the 2006 Cardinals (83-78). This year’s AL West winner and third wild card have a real chance to undercut all of them.
The deeper strangeness: of the eight teams scrapping for these spots, only the Detroit Tigers own a positive run differential — and Detroit began the week with the worst record of the eight, per ESPN. Six of the eight aren’t close to breaking even. The math says none of these teams is good. The rules say two of them are going to October anyway.
The contenders, briefly and honestly
Houston Astros. The good: Yordan Alvarez is a Triple Crown candidate and the AL MVP favorite, and Josh Hader is a perfect 19-for-19 in saves with a 0.81 ERA, per ESPN. The bad: the rotation ranks 28th in baseball with a 5.19 ERA and walks 4.54 batters per nine — the most by a rotation since the 1987 Rangers. Houston went just 3-6 on a soft homestand last week, and MLB.com notes the remaining schedule stiffens considerably.
Texas Rangers. Their team WAR leader is utility man Ezequiel Duran, who has started at seven positions; their pitching WAR leader is closer Jacob Latz (1.68 ERA, 26 saves), per ESPN. They’re 22-13 in one-run games — the classic mirage stat — while averaging just 4.05 runs per game. A September homestand against Boston, Toronto, and the Mets will decide things. One grim footnote: Evan Carter is hitting .196, threatening a franchise mark no qualified Ranger has touched since 1975.
Cleveland Guardians. The most functional team of the bunch. They’ve used only six starting pitchers all season, with a rotation seventh in ERA, per ESPN — the problem is an offense hitting .201 with two outs and runners in scoring position. But their deadline additions (Jo Adell: four homers and 18 RBIs in 19 games) are producing, and the Akron Beacon Journal reports they enter the stretch on a seven-game winning streak at 68-66, holding the third wild card and sitting 2.5 games behind the White Sox in the AL Central. FanGraphs gives them a 61.7 percent chance to make the playoffs and the AL’s second-easiest remaining schedule.
The rest. MLB.com’s roundtable runs through the pack chasing one spot: the Blue Jays (Cy Young candidate Dylan Cease, but a longest winning streak of just four games), the Twins (soft schedule, bad against the NL), the Orioles (about to feast on the A’s and Rockies before a brutal finish), the Mariners (MLB’s hardest August schedule now flips to the easiest, with 17 games against the Angels, A’s, and Rockies), and the Tigers — who, remarkably, no longer have Tarik Skubal or Casey Mize in the rotation, yet as prospect Max Clark noted, have better odds than the 0.2 percent chance they overcame in their 2024 miracle run.
The Guardians know how this movie ends
If you’re looking for a favorite in the chaos, the Beacon Journal makes the case for Cleveland — partly on schedule, partly on institutional memory. Under manager Stephen Vogt, the Guardians have beaten the odds two years running: last season they entered September with a 5.1 percent wild-card chance and virtually no shot at the division, then stole the AL Central from Detroit anyway. This year they open September with 16 consecutive games against the Blue Jays, Tigers, Orioles, Twins, and White Sox, per MLB.com — every game a chance to bury a direct rival. As the Beacon Journal puts it, Cleveland is in the unfamiliar position of being “expected to punch its ticket.”
Meanwhile, the top of the bracket is set
Lost in the chaos: the actual good teams. MLB.com notes the Red Sox and Yankees hold the AL’s top two wild-card spots “by a wide margin,” and ESPN’s rundown treats the Phillies, Brewers, and Cubs as October locks. The White Sox — leading the AL Central at 70-63, per the Beacon Journal — complete one of the season’s stranger sentences. The race isn’t about who’s great; it’s about which flawed team stumbles into the bracket to face the great ones.
The lockout shadow over September
One more layer, via Yahoo Sports: executives are already bracing for a potential lockout, with the collective bargaining agreement expiring December 1 — which could compress the winter into a frenzied November. That gives September’s games a second meaning as free-agent auditions. Yahoo’s names to watch: Brewers breakout Jake Bauers (career-high 23 homers), Cubs starter Clay Holmes (1.96 ERA since arriving, called the second-best free-agent starter available behind Tarik Skubal), the Phillies’ Luis Arraez, the Padres’ Casey Mize, and Cubs catcher Carson Kelly.
What happens next
With roughly 30 games left, per MLB.com, the shape of September is clear: Cleveland’s 16-game rival gauntlet starts the month and will either lock up the third wild card or blow the race open again. Seattle’s cupcake schedule makes the Mariners the sleeper for the division itself if they stay within a few games. Houston finishes with four at the sinking Athletics — though the A’s just won a series in Houston, so nothing is safe. The only guarantee: someone from this group will be in the postseason, possibly with a losing record, and a two-time odds-defying Guardians team is the closest thing this mess has to a favorite. September’s sports calendar won’t wait around, either — the NFL kicks off September 9 and the US Open crowns its champions that same week — but this race is running all the way to the wire.
Quick poll
Who stumbles into October out of this mess?
For the record: FanGraphs gives Cleveland a 61.7 percent playoff probability and the AL's second-easiest remaining schedule, per the Akron Beacon Journal.
FAQ
Can a team with a losing record make the MLB playoffs in 2026? Yes — entering this week, the AL West leaders were below .500, per ESPN. No full-season team has ever made the playoffs with a losing record, so this race could produce a first.
Who is favored to win the AL’s third wild card? Cleveland currently holds it, with FanGraphs giving the Guardians a 61.7 percent playoff probability and the AL’s second-easiest remaining schedule, per the Akron Beacon Journal.
Which teams are safely in the AL playoff picture? The Red Sox and Yankees hold the top two wild-card spots by a wide margin, per MLB.com, while the White Sox lead the AL Central.
Why does the MLB lockout matter for September? The CBA expires December 1, and Yahoo Sports reports teams expect a rushed, frenzied offseason before then — making September a final audition for free agents like Clay Holmes and Jake Bauers.
